SUSTAINING AT UPPER LEVEL DOESN’T MEAN A BREAKOUT OR FALL, IT CAN ONLY INDICATE THE CONSOLIDATION, SO AFTER THIS GOOD CONSOLIDATION MARKET CAN SHOW ITS REAL COLORS AND THAT CAN BE A GREEN OR RED EITHER, SO DON’T DECIDE BEFOR MARKET DECISION JUST WAIT AND WATCH THE COLOUR GAME FROM MARKET AND THEN PARTICIPATE WITH THE DIRECTION.
WE WISH YOU ALL A COLORFUL HOLI THIS YEAR, BE SAFE AND PALY WITH SAFE COLOR, EITHER IT’S A HOLI OR MARKET SAFETY OF PLAYER WILL BE CONCERN MUCH MORE.
Last week we mention that nifty need close above 6550 for more up move if not then some correction to expect. Just see it not able to close above 6550 and we seen volatility for entire week.
Last week nifty has made “BEARISH HARRAMI” candle on chart, and it has also made “TWIZER TOP” candles with the same top at 6562-63 range.
In last full week nifty made three tops at same level 6562 level and given a fall from there.
It has also given a “GRAVESTONE DOJI” candlestick pattern day prior to last session.
So we can clearly see that at this upper level market forming some bearish candlestick patterns, but this don’t mean fall till we not see market closing below the support trendline, till that time we can assume it as a consolidation.
Even in last trading session, market taken support on trendline and given a sharp rally, so till its above the trendline we can say 6400-6550 is a range of consolation.
If we look at the rsi we can see that rsi was in overbought zone, but due to recent moves in market it able to come down from oversold zone now, but price is still not below trendline. So this can indicate the divergence in a market.
Overall we can say that nifty is having a range of 6400-6565 now, closing beyond this range can confirm some directional movement in nifty now.
At present if we see monthly chart of nifty we can see that it has given a “ASCENDING TRIANGLE” breakout on chart and it shows that it need this month close above 6450 level, and if it able to move above this month’s high in next month that is the month of april then we can see good moves, as this triangle is having a width of 3800 points so breakout plus confirmation of breakout can lead for big move of almost 3800 points from 6450 level which can give level of 10250 also in period of 2-5 years’ time, also look at the rsi, its having a scope for a good up move, as its has given a “ BULLISH NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE” signal on chart and able to move above resistance level so now if price confirms the same thing then we can see good up moves. so long term traders can look at this development now.
Now fresh longs can be buildup only beyond 6565 closing only, if it fail to cross and close above this level again, then we can see fall from there also, but importantly taking decision near to this level is very crucial.
Upside if able to close above 6565 level then we can see 6650-6800 levels in coming time, if face resistance here then again fall to see till 6400-6450 range, moving below 6400 level on closing basis can give moves till 6300-6200 levels.
So as of now after a sharp bounce from low in last 1 month, now market is in consolidation zone, so till its trading in 6400-6565 range don’t carry position’s now once able to close beyond the level then you can think of positional holding of nifty.